Is Ammonia Ready to Enter the Mainstream?
As the shipping industry strives to align with the IMO’s net-zero framework, ammonia has emerged as a promising zero-carbon fuel. Nearly 400 ammonia-fueled vessels are currently on order worldwide, and regulatory momentum—such as FuelEU Maritime and regional carbon pricing—has lent credibility to its potential. However, actual consumption of sustainable marine fuels remains extremely limited.
Optimism is tempered by caution. Classification societies and regulators are still working to establish comprehensive safety and operational standards, while infrastructure pilot projects are only just beginning. Singapore, one of the world’s leading bunkering hubs, is preparing port-specific guidelines for ammonia fueling as part of its practical adoption roadmap.
Building the Supply Chain
Ashish Anilan, who leads ITOCHU’s global ammonia-fueled vessel initiatives from Singapore, views ammonia as a critical step in maritime decarbonization. He emphasizes that the IMO’s net-zero framework is groundbreaking in its combination of mandatory emissions caps and greenhouse gas reduction targets. Nevertheless, Anilan acknowledges the complexity of the transition: fuel choices, port bunkering readiness, and stakeholder coordination form a highly intricate ecosystem.
No Single Fuel Dominates
No single fuel dominates the decarbonization landscape. LNG was an early mover, methanol has secured a solid market position, and biofuels offer immediate carbon reductions. Ammonia’s advantage lies in its suitability for longer, heavier voyages and its absence of direct carbon emissions. This is reflected in orders for certain bulk carriers and container vessels, with even harbor tugs now undergoing ammonia trials.
Safety, Standards, and Port Readiness
Challenges remain significant. While ammonia has long been transported as a maritime cargo, its use as a fuel introduces unresolved safety requirements—including transfer systems, emergency response procedures, and crew training. Most classification societies have issued rules for ammonia as a marine fuel, and Singapore is developing port-level regulations to coexist alongside LNG and methanol frameworks.
First-Mover Projects
ITOCHU has signed an agreement with Sasaki Shipbuilding to construct the world’s first ammonia-fueled vessel. Designing safe transfer systems and ensuring crew competency are top priorities, and the experience gained will inform regulatory development at strategic ports such as Singapore, Algeciras, and Suez.
Inclusive Adoption
Anilan stresses the importance of inclusive adoption:
“More than half of the global orderbook consists of vessels capable of operating on alternative fuels. Yet actual sustainable fuel consumption remains negligible. The challenge is not merely fuel development, but adoption by every operator—actively, rather than passively accepting change.”
A Reality Check
Jon Løken, APAC Commercial Director at Siglar Carbon, offers a more pragmatic perspective. Despite the growing number of newbuilds designed to run on ammonia, Løken is skeptical that ammonia-fueled vessels will see widespread operational use in the near term. He suggests that fuel cell and hydrogen-based solutions may ultimately be more transformative, although they remain largely experimental today.
Technical and Regulatory Constraints
Ammonia’s physical characteristics present inherent challenges. Its lower energy density requires vessels to carry greater fuel volume or weight, while test results have raised concerns regarding nitrogen oxide (NOₓ) emissions during combustion. From a regulatory standpoint, frameworks such as FuelEU Maritime and IMO regulations may limit ammonia’s near-term viability over the next five years. Løken expects ammonia to find niche applications—particularly in ports or regions with high carbon taxation—while other feedstocks, such as methanol, are likely to dominate in the short term.
Emissions Data and Market Dynamics
Accurate emissions data is critical. Current models often rely on assumptions regarding methane slip, NOₓ formation, or other greenhouse gases, underscoring the need for real-world validation. At the same time, carbon pricing introduces a new dimension for charterers: fuel is no longer merely a cost factor, but a tradable value. Some brokers and charterers are already developing strategies to navigate—and capitalize on—the evolving low-carbon fuel landscape.
Can Ammonia Scale?
As ammonia infrastructure matures and pilot projects advance, its success will depend on operational readiness, comprehensive regulatory frameworks, reliable emissions data, and market acceptance. Over the next five years, particularly with upcoming MEPC decisions and coordinated industry efforts, the question will be whether ammonia can transition from an idealized concept into a practical, long-term zero-carbon solution for the shipping industry.