A Decade After Paris: Production Gap Widens
Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the new 2025 Production Gap Report reveals a dangerous trend: governments globally are planning fossil fuel extraction far above the levels needed to limit global warming to either 1.5°C or 2°C as pledged under the accord. Analysis of official energy roadmaps and industry investments from the world’s top 20 producers—including the U.S., China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and others—shows that by 2030, coal output is projected to be about 500% higher than the 1.5°C target allows, with gas and oil production exceeding Paris-compatible levels by 92% and 31% respectively.
Global Trends and Country Plans
Most major fossil-fuel-producing countries remain committed to expansion, not contraction. Since 2023, 17 of 20 surveyed nations have increased near-term production plans for at least one fuel, with 11 now expecting to extract more fossil fuels in 2030 than previously projected. Governments continue to subsidize industry and invest in new infrastructure, locking in future emissions and contradicting climate mitigation pledges and global “net-zero” ambitions. Only six countries now show some degree of alignment with Paris-compatible reductions—up just slightly from 2023.
Coal, Gas, and Oil: The Surging Gap
Coal represents the largest misalignment: India's coal gasification mission alone will add 100 million tonnes by 2030, while other countries plan to maintain high production through 2035. Gas production—often wrongly promoted as a “transition fuel”—has expanded out to 2050, with no credible transition strategy in place. Oil output is expected to continue rising beyond 2050, contradicting earlier expectations that global fossil fuel demand would peak before 2030.
Risks for Climate, Economy, and Transition
The persistence of these expansion plans is widening the global “production gap,” undermining the Paris Agreement and creating long-term lock-in effects—such as stranded assets, entrenched infrastructure, and future forced emission cuts. Short-term political priorities like energy security and economic growth continue to dominate, delaying critical investment in renewables, efficiency, and just transition strategies. Experts warn that unless governments reverse this trajectory rapidly, the world faces catastrophic temperature overshoot and a far more difficult path to climate resilience.
Conclusion
The 2025 Production Gap Report delivers a critical warning: without coordinated global action to curb fossil fuel expansion, the Paris Agreement goals will remain out of reach. Humanity risks locking itself into a future shaped by unchecked warming, accelerating environmental disruption, and lost opportunities for sustainable growth.