A new Perspectives research study on the global PV supply chain's future outlines how module prices, performance, and lifetimes could evolve over the next 25 years. The collaborative work among leading solar research institutions worldwide reveals ambitious targets for solar technology advancement.
Efficiency and Cost Projections
Andreas Bett, director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), told pv magazine that solar module and cell efficiencies could exceed 35% by 2050, with panel prices expected to drop by a factor of two.
"Solar module efficiency may exceed 35% through tandem structures by 2050," Bett said. He added that cell efficiency could surpass 36%, with lower cell-to-module losses than today. "By the end of the first half of this century, solar module prices may drop by a factor of two."
The Research Collaboration
An international research team from leading solar PV institutions and companies identified the most important R&D trends for what it calls the new era of multi-terawatt photovoltaics.
The team participated in the 4th Terawatt Workshop, one of a series of high-level international PV workshops led by Germany's Fraunhofer ISE, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Japan's National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST).
In their paper "Historical and future learning for the new era of multi-terawatt photovoltaics," recently published in Nature Energy, the group predicts continued improvements in PV price, performance, and reliability, alongside growing attention to resource use, emissions, and recycling in future designs and manufacturing.
Efficiency vs. Cost: The Critical Balance
Bett emphasized that both higher efficiency and lower costs will be critical to the energy transition, but he sees efficiency as the more important factor.
"Higher efficiency means less material and less land are needed for PV installations, which improves sustainability and reduces overall system costs," he said, adding that solar module lifetimes will "certainly" extend beyond 40 years.
Technology Pathways
The researchers stressed that the PV industry has consistently exceeded earlier projections for module cost, performance, and integration. Innovations in tandem architectures and manufacturing are expected for PV technologies including:
Crystalline silicon (c-Si): The current dominant technology with proven track record.
Cadmium telluride (CdTe): Thin-film technology with competitive costs.
Copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS): Alternative thin-film approach with high efficiency potential.
These advances could and should enable new players to enter the market, creating a more globally diversified cell and module supply chain.
Technical Challenges Ahead
The researchers explained that new tandem PV technologies will have to clearly define performance, ensure predictable energy output, detect early failures, and manage unknown degradation risks. This last challenge also affects current silicon modules and is critical for emerging perovskite-based technologies.
Perovskite tandem cells show particular promise for reaching the 35% efficiency threshold but face durability questions that must be resolved before widespread deployment.
Manufacturing Capacity Projections
The study projects that global solar manufacturing capacity could reach approximately 3 TW by 2050. This represents a massive scale-up from current levels, requiring sustained investment in manufacturing infrastructure and supply chain development.
Sustainability-Driven Innovation
The research highlights that sustainability-driven learning has already lowered costs and will be increasingly vital for the PV industry to secure the resources needed for future growth.
Future considerations include:
Resource efficiency: Minimizing material inputs per watt of capacity.
Emissions reduction: Lowering manufacturing carbon footprint.
Recycling infrastructure: Developing end-of-life management systems.
Circular economy principles: Designing for disassembly and material recovery.
Global Collaboration Network
The research group included scientists from institutions spanning multiple continents: Germany's Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH and Fraunhofer ISE, Japanese solar glass maker AGC Inc, Finland's LUT University, China's Yangtze Institute for Solar Technology and Trina Solar, UK perovskite specialist Oxford Photovoltaics Ltd, Saudi Arabia's KAUST Solar Center and King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Australia's University of New South Wales (UNSW), U.S. thin-film manufacturer First Solar, Japan's National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), and Singapore-based manufacturer Maxeon.
Shifting Focus for Future Research
"Topics for future PV community meetings, such as the 4th Terawatt Workshop that informed this Perspective, may shift to addressing system and end-user needs," the scientists concluded.
This signals a maturation of the industry from fundamental technology development toward system integration, grid compatibility, and user experience optimization.
The Broader Impact
"Investment, manufacturing and adoption today will pay globally transformative dividends tomorrow in terms of economic growth, productivity, job creation and reduced pollution and poverty," the researchers stated.
The vision presented combines technological ambition with pragmatic focus on real-world deployment challenges. Achieving 35% module efficiency by 2050 while halving costs would fundamentally reshape global energy economics, making solar the clear default choice for new electricity generation virtually everywhere.
For the solar industry, this roadmap provides targets to guide R&D investment and manufacturing strategy over the coming decades. For policymakers, it underscores the importance of supporting continued innovation while ensuring supply chain resilience and sustainability.
The transition to multi-terawatt PV deployment is no longer aspirational—it's the baseline scenario for meeting global climate targets while expanding energy access and economic opportunity.
